Are Thailand and Malaysia gravitating toward China and Russia?

The two Southeast Asian nations are showing interest in joining the BRICS group of emerging economies, in which China and Russia exert their influence.

As members of the so-called Global South, Thailand and Malaysia have maintained a neutral stance, balancing between the West on one hand and China and Russia on the other, even amid a chaotic international situation.

Thailand applied to join BRICS in June. In July, Malaysia also announced its intention to officially submit an application to BRICS.

The BRICS group is scheduled to hold a summit in Russia this month and is expected to invite more countries that are interested in joining.

It is believed that Thailand and Malaysia have already received a positive response from the existing BRICS members. Therefore, their membership is likely to be approved at the meeting.

What is their purpose in joining BRICS? There is no doubt that both countries are keen to further strengthen their economic ties with the BRICS members.

The five main BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — account for 40 per cent of the world’s population and roughly 25 per cent of the world’s total GDP.

Malaysia, with its thriving semiconductor industry, may wish to further enhance its national interests by collaborating with Chinese companies.

Thailand, too, must be seeking to reverse the decline of its automotive industry through cooperation with the BRICS countries.

The two countries’ moves to apply for membership show that they put top priority on their own national interests.

It can be seen as an action based on the idea of “strategic autonomy” that is valued by nations of the Global South.

On the other hand, it is also likely that there was strong encouragement from China and Russia. China has proposed expanding BRICS membership, and Russia agreed.

At the BRICS summit last August, it was decided to increase the number of member countries by six: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina and Ethiopia.

China and Russia apparently want to further increase the number of member countries and position BRICS as a counterweight to the United States and Europe.

BRICS began in the 2000s as a framework for economic cooperation among five emerging economies that had achieved remarkable economic growth at that time.

In recent years, though, it has become more of a political alliance led by China and Russia.

One month after the fighting between Israel and the Islamic militant group Hamas began last October, a special summit was held online, at which Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that “the BRICS countries can play an important role.”

This was a sign that the BRICS countries are standing by Palestine, which has suffered tremendously in the fighting, and are trying to appeal to the Global South, which includes many Muslim-majority countries, in contrast to the United States and Europe, which defend Israel.

It is said that the United States and Europe do not see BRICS as rivals, but they cannot afford not to be wary if the trend of BRICS expansion, led by China and Russia, is likely to promote global fragmentation.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Thailand and Malaysia, is trying to balance the security threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region by maintaining ties with the United States and Europe, as evidenced by the upgrading of ASEAN’s relationship with the United States to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2022.

It is problematic that no progress has been made since then. The United States has appeared to be taking a less positive approach to ASEAN.

If former U.S. President Donald Trump, who largely neglected ASEAN during his first administration, is re-elected next month, the accession of ASEAN members to BRICS may accelerate.

In addition to Thailand and Malaysia, several other countries including Vietnam are already showing interest in BRICS.

Japan, which has good relations with ASEAN member countries, has an important role to play in this situation.

It goes without saying that Japan can cooperate in maintaining stability in the region based on its track record of contributing to the development of each country.

However, Japan must not make a mistake in its approach. While Japan shares democratic values and ideals with the United States and Europe, it should not try to impose these values on its Asian neighbours.

Japan must consider the circumstances of each country and build proper relationships to keep those countries from focusing solely on China and Russia.

The first official overseas trip by Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is to attend ASEAN-related summit meetings in Laos this week.

Even if it is a coincidence, this seems to indicate that deepening relations with ASEAN is a top priority for the new prime minister.

His diplomatic policy will be tested from the beginning.